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More Plant Shutdowns - Printable Version +- Wanderlodge Gurus - The Member Funded Wanderlodge Forum (http://www.wanderlodgegurus.com) +-- Forum: Yahoo Groups Archive (/forumdisplay.php?fid=61) +--- Forum: WanderlodgeForum (/forumdisplay.php?fid=63) +--- Thread: More Plant Shutdowns (/showthread.php?tid=6612) |
More Plant Shutdowns - birdshill123 - 04-18-2008 14:11 It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting back production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name) The really bad news is as follows: DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc. said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales. Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila Davis said Friday. Although The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates in recent months, the reduction has not largely reached consumers yet, Davis said. The curtailment of production at the company's factories in Forest City, Charles City and Hampton will affect a majority of the ompany's 3,000 workers. A production line in Charles City will stay on the job during the week and office workers will remain. "We take a look at our schedules based on the level we're seeing in the retail market and the wholesale market to our dealers," Davis said. "We evaluate that on a daily basis and want to make sure we keep our inventories in line." The company typically only shuts down production for a week around Christmas and a week in late July. In March, Winnebago reported that second-quarter profits fell nearly 67 percent as consumer confidence helped drag down sales of recreational vehicles. Net income fell to $2.5 million, or 9 cents a share, for the three months ended March 1, down from $7.5 million, or 24 cents a share a year ago. Sales fell 17.5 percent to $164.2 million from $199 million for the same period a year ago. On Friday shares were trading 2.2 percent higher, or 35 cents, at $15.79. Shares have traded in the past 52 weeks between $14.96 and $34.44. The Forest City-based company said in March it had cut employment by 9 percent, or about 300 people during the quarter to bring production in line with slowing sales. President Bob Olson told industry analysts that sales were down across the industry in the double digits for each month since the beginning of the year. He told analysts that the usual spring uptick in sales likely will be muted because of concerns over the economy. Olson said he hoped to see a turnaround by November. END OF ARTICLE Some of the other mfrs. that closed were smaller mfrs. with shakey management. Winnie is probably an exception. An experienced and usually well run company. If they cannot sell units who can?? I saw that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. We should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million dollar toys such as yachts? Bruce 1988 FC35 More Plant Shutdowns - Mike Hohnstein - 04-18-2008 14:31 Most of us are old enough to have lived through the Nixon/Ford/Carter years. I doubt there should be much surprise for any of us as fuel heads for 5 bucks a gallon. There is hope however, the po' folks over seas is hungry due to the cost of food commodities spiking, mebbe the oil company haters will get their minds right yet, and start to use the resources we have in OUR homeland. I'm not talking about freeking ethanol either, WTH.
MH
More Plant Shutdowns - jim riordan - 04-18-2008 14:45 The real answer is to get the price of fuel down, that will help our enconomy the most. birdshill123
Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. [url=http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=51733/*http://mobile.yahoo.com/;_ylt=Ahu06i62sR8HDtDypao8Wcj9tAcJ ] Try it now.[/url] More Plant Shutdowns - Henry Jay Hannigan - 04-18-2008 14:46 Mike: If u think things are bad now, wait til the war ends in a year. Everybody get ready and hold on. Recommend u plant a veggy garden and park the bird in a warm climate and ride it out!! LOL Hank 90SP36 PS clear those credit cards and burn em...I did! In WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Hohnstein" <MHOHNSTEIN@...> wrote: > > Most of us are old enough to have lived through the Nixon/Ford/Carter years. I doubt there should be much surprise for any of us as fuel heads for 5 bucks a gallon. There is hope however, the po' folks over seas is hungry due to the cost of food commodities spiking, mebbe the oil company haters will get their minds right yet, and start to use the resources we have in OUR homeland. I'm not talking about freeking ethanol either, WTH. > MH > ----- Original Message ----- > From: birdshill123 > To: WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com > Sent: Friday, April 18, 2008 9:11 PM > Subject: [WanderlodgeForum] More Plant Shutdowns > > > It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting back > production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country > Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo > and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be > out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name) > The really bad news is as follows: > > DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc. > said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week > beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales. > > Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two > primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila > Davis said Friday. > > Although The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates in > recent months, the reduction has not largely reached consumers yet, > Davis said. > > The curtailment of production at the company's factories in Forest > City, Charles City and Hampton will affect a majority of the ompany's > 3,000 workers. > > A production line in Charles City will stay on the job during the > week and office workers will remain. > > "We take a look at our schedules based on the level we're seeing in > the retail market and the wholesale market to our dealers," Davis > said. "We evaluate that on a daily basis and want to make sure we > keep our inventories in line." > > The company typically only shuts down production for a week around > Christmas and a week in late July. > > In March, Winnebago reported that second-quarter profits fell nearly > 67 percent as consumer confidence helped drag down sales of > recreational vehicles. > > Net income fell to $2.5 million, or 9 cents a share, for the three > months ended March 1, down from $7.5 million, or 24 cents a share a > year ago. Sales fell 17.5 percent to $164.2 million from $199 million > for the same period a year ago. > > On Friday shares were trading 2.2 percent higher, or 35 cents, at > $15.79. Shares have traded in the past 52 weeks between $14.96 and > $34.44. > > The Forest City-based company said in March it had cut employment by > 9 percent, or about 300 people during the quarter to bring production > in line with slowing sales. > > President Bob Olson told industry analysts that sales were down > across the industry in the double digits for each month since the > beginning of the year. > > He told analysts that the usual spring uptick in sales likely will be > muted because of concerns over the economy. Olson said he hoped to > see a turnaround by November. > > END OF ARTICLE > > Some of the other mfrs. that closed were smaller mfrs. with shakey > management. Winnie is probably an exception. An experienced and > usually well run company. If they cannot sell units who can?? I saw > that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. We > should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV > mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important > of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million > dollar toys such as yachts? > > Bruce > 1988 FC35 > More Plant Shutdowns - David Brady - 04-18-2008 15:22 I wonder how the manufacturers of entry-level campers are doing? Smart business plans always seem to cater to either the Walmart crowd (pop-up campers), or the tiffany crowd (Prevost or BlueBird), anything between always seems to take it pretty hard when the economy turns south. David '02 LXi, NC birdshill123 wrote:
More Plant Shutdowns - mbulriss - 04-18-2008 16:04 > I saw that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. > We should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV > mfrs. are doing Bruce - I knew Harley was feeling the pain when I received an offer of 1.05% financing early in the year to 'celebrate' their 105th anniversary. Yeah, right.... As youwell know, there's a huge lead-lag factor in the general consumer economy - and the reporting on the same. I'm in the electronics manufacturing game and I saw the economy changing dramatically mid-year last year. Fortunately (for me), we run counter-cyclical to the consumer industry. We deal in jails and prisons. The economy starts dropping, crime goes up, our business goes up. You are right in stating that "We should not take all of this lightly". As you and I have both pointed out, the worst is yet to come in the 'sub-prime' mortgage debacle. I can't speak for BB, but according to a friend in the Prevost game, so far he still claims their business stays constant regardless of the general economy. Something about inelasticity of demand for the well-heeled, versus the general elasticity of demand for the overall consumer market, such as when discussing fuel prices. In any event, for those with money, there will be some spectacular buying opportunities (on most anything) in the near future. The question is whether they are wise buying opportunities. Without going into the value of the dollar, and when is the bottom really the bottom, I fear that anyone with a BB is quite "upside down" right now, regardless of how well they bought into it! As someone recently posted, very astutely, that's why they are called Recreational Vehicles and we should enjoy them as such! Mike Bulriss 1991 WB40 "Texas Minivan" San Antonio, TX --- In WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com, "birdshill123" > > It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting back > production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country > Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo > and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be > out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name) > The really bad news is as follows: > > > > DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc. > said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week > beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales. > > Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two > primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila > Davis said Friday. > > Although The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates in > recent months, the reduction has not largely reached consumers yet, > Davis said. > > The curtailment of production at the company's factories in Forest > City, Charles City and Hampton will affect a majority of the ompany's > 3,000 workers. > > > A production line in Charles City will stay on the job during the > week and office workers will remain. > > "We take a look at our schedules based on the level we're seeing in > the retail market and the wholesale market to our dealers," Davis > said. "We evaluate that on a daily basis and want to make sure we > keep our inventories in line." > > The company typically only shuts down production for a week around > Christmas and a week in late July. > > In March, Winnebago reported that second-quarter profits fell nearly > 67 percent as consumer confidence helped drag down sales of > recreational vehicles. > > Net income fell to $2.5 million, or 9 cents a share, for the three > months ended March 1, down from $7.5 million, or 24 cents a share a > year ago. Sales fell 17.5 percent to $164.2 million from $199 million > for the same period a year ago. > > On Friday shares were trading 2.2 percent higher, or 35 cents, at > $15.79. Shares have traded in the past 52 weeks between $14.96 and > $34.44. > > The Forest City-based company said in March it had cut employment by > 9 percent, or about 300 people during the quarter to bring production > in line with slowing sales. > > President Bob Olson told industry analysts that sales were down > across the industry in the double digits for each month since the > beginning of the year. > > He told analysts that the usual spring uptick in sales likely will be > muted because of concerns over the economy. Olson said he hoped to > see a turnaround by November. > > END OF ARTICLE > > Some of the other mfrs. that closed were smaller mfrs. with shakey > management. Winnie is probably an exception. An experienced and > usually well run company. If they cannot sell units who can?? I saw > that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. We > should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV > mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important > of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million > dollar toys such as yachts? > > Bruce > 1988 FC35 > More Plant Shutdowns - Pete Masterson - 04-19-2008 04:00 I was first interested in RVing in the late 60s (though I didn't have the income to afford it then)... this was not long before the 1973 oil crisis -- and fuel prices shot up and RV driving/ownership plummeted. Many RV manufacturers went out of business. This was repeated in 1979, although that oil crisis was not as severe. Each crisis was accompanied by claims that "life as we know it has ended..." We are again in a oil -price- crisis accompanied by a financial services meltdown due to sub prime loan "problems" related to the real estate market collapse. Of course consumer confidence in the economy has tanked. A substantial portion of our population has seen their home values drop -- in some areas, including where I live, significantly. Many people had been using equity financing to use their homes as a 'bank account' -- but that is cut off when housing prices drop reducing the equity in homes as the margin between mortgage balance and market value is pinched. During each past oil crisis, RV manufacturer's sales tanked. Many of the financially weaker companies went bankrupt (or just closed their doors). Even the mighty WInnebago was sorely tested according to a history I recently read in one of the RV magazines. However, each economic recession was eventually put behind us. Each recession was followed by robust economic times. Indeed, by the early 00s, adjusted for inflation, fuel costs were at one of their lowest levels relative to family income since the 60s. Since I've seen that "life as we know it" does not necessarily end during oil price crisis or economic recession, I'm fairly certain that the US economy will weather the current situation and an improved economy will evolve in a few months (with its share of interim pain, no doubt). Over half the increase in oil prices is attributed to the reduced value of the dollar relative to other currencies. A weak dollar is caused by several factors, including erroneous thinking on the part of politicians (of all political parties) that think it "helps" make US produced goods more competitive on the world market. A weak dollar does, initially, give a small boost to US exports, but every time this course has been followed, it eventually ignites serious inflation at home and ultimately wipes out any advantage our exporters may have achieved and wreaks havoc with consumers and wage earners as they struggle with inflation. What all this means is that we'll all have to hunker down and ride out the financial storm. Eventually, it will pass. We hope that our favorite companies can ride it out as well and survive into better times ahead. Economic recessions always have rather uneven impacts, so it's hard to predict who'll be the survivors. As for me, I'm probably going to (try to) drive a little slower to use a little less fuel.... Pete Masterson '95 Blue Bird Wanderlodge WBDA 42 El Sobrante CA "aeonix1@mac.com" On Apr 18, 2008, at 7:11 PM, birdshill123 wrote:
More Plant Shutdowns - Ron Thompson - 04-19-2008 08:02 Pete, I agree with you that our economy will weather this storm, however, we are in a completely different situation this time. China, India, and Asia were not the power houses they are becoming and we had not given away so much of our manufacturing base. Those overseas companies are not going to give up what they now have at all. Their competetion at the Oil Companies market place is going to ensure that we are going to have high prices from now on. With our manufacturing base gone, what will we have left to sell, hamburgers? I know that diesel prices are certainly going to curb my travel. I have a 2005 Dodge Ram 2500 Cummins diesel and it cost me over a hundred dollars just to fill its tank. At $4.14 per gallon of diesel, it costs me $1242.00 to fill this 1995 WLWB 42 footer. And at 6 miles to the gallon if I baby it along I can get down the road about 1800 miles. However, if I am in mountains or just hills that mileage goes down quickly to about 4 miles to the gallon. Heartbreaking.... Ron Thompson Pete Masterson
More Plant Shutdowns - Pete Masterson - 04-19-2008 09:29 Ron, I have the same year coach as you ... and believe me, a "top off" of over $1000 is not something I really anticipated when I got my coach. And, I'm well aware of the fuel use, especially if you get a little too enthusiastic about covering ground in states with high speed limits and little traffic. While your concern about the competition of China and India for oil certainly suggest that higher oil prices can be expected are true -- (that probably accounts for a good portion of the _other_ half of the price increase over the past year) a strengthening dollar, should it eventually arrive, will give the economy room to adjust to the higher prices -- as it has in the prior "oil shocks." The gloom and doom news from the media over our economic situation often ignores a few realities. For example, the 2007 GDP for China is only about 1/4 this size of the US economy. (India's GDP is about 1/2 the size of China's economy.) 07 wasn't a great growth year for the US (about 2.2%) and China reported a 10+% increase. However, when converted to actual dollars, the US growth was about $305 billion while China's GDP grew about $350 billion. When you compare percents (2.2 vs 10+) it looks bad for the US ... but when you look at the actual dollars it represents, the massive size of the US economy is still quite large in comparison. Indeed, in a good year when the US growth rate gets to 3.5% or so, our _growth_ alone is equal to 1/2 the total GDP of China. Yes, China (and India) are gaining on us. Yes, we have many challenges ahead. Yes, there are several disturbing trends in our economy and demographics that suggest that some serious challenges will occur in the next few years. But there is considerable strength in our economy and there are also many factors that suggest that we'll do better than many doomsayers claim. No ... we won't be selling hamburgers to the world. It's actually better for our economy (and the world's economy) that production move to places where it can be most efficiently produced. (It leaves our economy to produce the goods and _services_ that we're most efficient at doing.) That the US loses "high paying" manufacturing jobs is sometimes painfully obvious -- but manufacturing is less than 20% of our GDP (2006 figures latest available to me). When manufacturing moves overseas, it generally increases other jobs in the U.S. -- this, of course, is dispersed, so the obvious (newsworthy) loss of jobs is publicized but the not-so-obvious increase in other jobs, spread throughout the country and in a variety of sectors (transportation, wholesale trade, retail trade, finance, etc.) is neither obvious nor reported. Indeed, this map gives a little perspective as it relates the GDP of each US _state_ to countries throughout the world. <http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2007/06/10/131-us-states-renamed-for-countries-with-similar-gdps/> (you may need to reassemble this to load in your browser) or try The US generates about 30.5% of the world GDP, China contributes about 5.8% of world GDP. So, short term, I'm quite concerned about the US economy. I'm painfully aware of the recent, significant run-up in fuel cost. But longer-term, I'm quite confident that we'll recover economically. So don't get sucked in by the reportage from the media over our economic "problems" (and realize that in a presidential election year there are many who benefit from "bad news" about the economy). Pete Masterson '95 Blue Bird Wanderlodge WBDA 42 El Sobrante CA "aeonix1@mac.com" On Apr 19, 2008, at 1:02 PM, Ron Thompson wrote: Pete, More Plant Shutdowns - Steve Pfiffner - 04-19-2008 11:09 ,___
This thread will end up proving why politics are a banned topic on most forums like this. I am amazed that after 30 years of exporting our production capacity and our jobs that so many people still buy into the pablum that destroying american jobs is somehow "economic efficency" when it is simply greater profits for the corporate elite. The Europeans choose to protect industries and jobs and it has served them well as noted
by the current exchange rates.
Steve
Wannabee
Steve
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