88' 8v92 NC 50grand

[Pete Masterson]

Leroy, you make some good points.

We also need to understand that, like the early 70s, we're in a "fuel price shock" -- and as the realization that fuel prices may be at a new and higher level for some time, people will have to adjust their personal budget to absorb the 'hit' to their pocket books.

Obviously, this kind of a transition period is not when folks are going out to look for expensive toys that use a lot of fuel. SUVs, large pick-up trucks, and RVs of every type have stopped selling in any quantity. It happened in the last two "fuel shocks" as well. But after a period of time, people adjust.

The good news is that about 1/2 the _increase_ in fuel cost is due to the relative value of the dollar tanking on the world market. This is because the Federal Reserve has cut our interest rates to low levels (relative to other currencies) to 'help' with our current financial system crisis. What is the good news? Well, eventually other countries will have to make similar fiscal interest rate adjustments as their economies become stressed by the ripples caused by the US economy (after all, we're still about 50% of the world market). And, the Fed will eventually bring up our interest rates -- and the dollar's value will recover. This may take a year or 18 months or 24 months (I sure have no handle on that), but it will come. Oil will drop $30 per barrel (or so). 

Also, high prices _do_ call forth more supply. That old law of supply and demand will eventually kick in. Oil companies and alternate/substitute fuel producers are fearful of an oil price crash (they've happened before), so they're reluctant to invest -- until the market starts to show some stability. If prices stay comfortably above (say) $70 per barrel, then higher cost sources become economic to exploit. Once some new supply enters the market, it will drop prices, and shake out the speculators, further dropping prices. (How do I know this? Because it's what's happened at least twice before.)

So, while RVs, and SUV, and other "fuel guzzlers" are suddenly very unpopular, it's unlikely that situation will remain for more than a couple of years. Once people become accustomed to the higher prices (and/or if prices fade a bit from their peak), then people will start getting and buying the vehicles they want to buy. After all, when fuel was $3.00 per gallon (more or less) people were buying heavy fuel using cars, suvs and trucks -- even though there are and were plenty of very economical choices out there -- but there wasn't the demand.

So, my feeling is that there is an opportunity to get a 20 year old WL at one heck of a bargain. It's value may not increase, should fuel prices eventually pull back -- but it will very probably hold its value for quite some time with very little downward drift for several years.

Pete Masterson

'95 Blue Bird Wanderlodge WBDA 42

El Sobrante CA

"aeonix1@mac.com"

On May 14, 2008, at 2:23 PM, Leroy Eckert wrote:

Never at a loss for words, I will attempt to answer some of your questions.

But before I do, I feel your economic pain as do a gazillion other Americans. It happen to me also after NAFTA was signed the terms of which subsequently took down a 50 year old company I worked for because all the work went to the Maquiladora's in Mexico, thereby taking my $.5M golden parachute with it. I earned it but never got it. Unfortunately, that has nothing to do with what you pay for a BB.

The reason you are looking at BB's is, you know as well as I do that it will last you the rest of your life if properly maintained. You see value. If properly maintained it will be your last coach. If not it wouldn't. You cannot say that about any of the 1000 SOB's out there for sale. Plastic palaces are essentially throw away items. How many of them 20 year old babies do you see around.

As for future value, do you believe that a well maintained 87 PT 38 will be worth zero one day? If so, you should think a little more. If you go out there an grab that "fabulous deal" you find, characterized in terms of dollars you better be careful. You can drop $20k in one of these things in a heart beat and I ain't talking about the Heartbeat of America, because these things aren't Chevy's but are the Mercedes of motor homes.

I see you reside in Washington. I think Dick Hayden, the good fellow with the $60K bus, lives in that State also. Perhaps it would be prudent to go look at his fine coach. You might like it and see the ""value"" because that is what you are really looking for.

I wonder after you buy it if you will think it is worth $40K?

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