Blue Bird

[birdshill123]

For Macy:

Methinks thou dost protest too much. Here is part of one article
published in Dec. 2007. Although all the mfrs. were optimistic the
sales figures wer not.


RV sales roll with the economy
By John Schwartz Published: December 3, 2007



LOUISVILLE, Kentucky: The magician, dapper and gray-haired, got
laughs with card tricks and other feats that were already old when he
was still young.

Dick Stoner drew a crowd around an enormous banner that
read "Crossroads" - the company paying him so that it could stand out
from more than a hundred other manufacturers at the Recreation
Vehicle Industry Association's annual dealer convention in the
Kentucky Exposition Center.

It is no small trick to attract throngs from some 15,000 footsore
attendees at a show that covers 925,000 square feet, or about 86,000
square meters, and is packed with vehicles costing $5,000 to $1
million.

But Stoner is very good at his craft. He blends punch lines and
prestidigitation with frequent repetition of the Crossroads moniker.

After all, the $15 billion RV industry could use a little magic just
now. To read news releases, things are going great. Public relations
materials sent to reporters in the weeks before the trade show noted
that the current five-year sales period was the best in the past 30
years and that a consumer survey from the University of Michigan had
projected a 3.8 percent rise in shipments to manufacturers in the
coming year.


Winnebago announced during the show that its revenue was falling for
the first time in six years. And the industry association released
updated projections indicating that sales would probably decline 4.8
percent next year compared with 2007.

With an uncertain economy, tightening credit and gas prices through
the roof, many would-be captains of land yachts are rethinking their
dreams.

Other issues also loom in a world increasingly worried about waste,
sustainability and global warming. It might be getting harder to love
a beast that gulps a gallon of fuel every seven miles.

Little wonder, then, that one word is on many lips. Bruce Hertzke,
the chief executive of Winnebago, acknowledges that the times
are "challenging." In an interview, Richard Riegel, chief operating
officer of Thor Industries, the parent company of 11 RV makers,
including Crossroads and Airstream, invoked the specter of
a "challenging market."

Mark Warmoth, whose Weekend Warrior Trailer Manufacturing
pioneered "toy haulers" - RV's with garage space in the back for all-
terrain vehicles, motorcycles and other implements of outdoor fun -
is less prone to euphemism.

"A lot of people," he said, "are laying down and dying."

But, before anyone starts into a "serves them right" sermon about
wretched excess, fuel consumption or the driving habits of snowbirds,
consider this: Challenging times for the industry generally mean
challenging times for many other Americans as well, because RV slumps
tend to precede economic recessions.

RVs are a "highly discretionary" purchase, said Matt Howard, the vice
president for marketing at Country Coach, a manufacturer of luxury
craft that are roughly large enough to have their own ZIP code.

"The only reason somebody needs our motor coach is because they tell
themselves they need our motor coach," he said.

Manufacturers say they are optimistic that the downturn is temporary.