A little of subject but something of interest

[Blair]

Well, that's a yes and a no.....please read the following, Blair

"Boone Pickens Warns of Petroleum Production Peak

>Legendary Oklahoma energy magnate, T. Boone Pickens will be 77 years old
>
>this month, and maybe because of that, he feels free to speak what's on
>his
>mind; and he did to an audience of alternative fuel advocates in Palm
>Springs today.
>
>Addressing the 11th National Clean Cities conference, hosted by the
>former
>mayor of Palm Springs and introduced by former U.S. Energy Secretary
>John
>Herrington (1984-1989), Boone, as his friends refer to him, was candid
>in
>his views of wind energy, nuclear power, natural gas, and in particular
>petroleum.
>
>While he acknowledges wind power is cheap today, he, as well as
>former-Secretary Herrington, questioned the contribution it can make to
>the
>nation's future energy needs. He finds nuclear power attractive and
>believes natural gas should be used to power our transportation fleets
>rather than to generate electricity. In general, he was very upbeat
>about
>the prospects for alternative transportation fuels.
>
>But on the future of petroleum, he was less sanguine.
>
>"Let me tell you some facts the way I see it," he began. "Global oil
>(production) is 84 million barrels (a day). I don't believe you can get
>it
>any more than 84 million barrels. I don't care what (Saudi Crown Prince)
>
>Abdullah, (Russian Premier Vladimir) Putin or anybody else says about
>oil
>reserves or production. I think they are on decline in the biggest oil
>fields in the world today and I know what's it like once you turn the
>corner and start declining, it's a tread mill that you just can't keep
>up
>with.
>
>"So, when you start adding the reserves in these countries, you're not
>even
>replacing what you're taking out.
>
>"Let me take you to another situation quickly. 84 million barrels a day
>times 365 days is 30 billion barrels of oil a year that we're depleting.
>
>All of the world's (oil) industry doesn't even come close to replacing
>30
>billion barrels of oil. We don't spend enough money to even give
>ourselves
>a chance to replace 30 billion barrels. It may be because the prospects
>are
>not there. I rather imagine that's what the answer is to that.
>
>"So, if you accept that 84 million barrels a day is all the world can
>(produce), and then look at refining capacity, I think it's just a
>coincidence that refining capacity... world capacity... is 84 million
>barrels a day. So, we're in balance: 84, 84.
>
>"Now you see the projections for the fourth quarter of '05, I mean like
>tomorrow; it is 86 to 87 million barrels of oil a day required. China
>(and)
>India (are) growing fast. Our economy is going down a little bit, but it
>
>doesn't seem to be shutting off demand for gasoline, oil, natural gas,
>whatever. But around the world... just assume that the (U.S.) economy is
>
>slowing, but China is still ramped up; it is still 86, 87 million for
>the
>fourth quarter.
>
>"Now we've got some pretty good inventory, those will be... I think..
>they'll be gone in the third quarter. I can't wait to see how this is
>all
>going to play out.
>
>"Don't let the day-to-day NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) fool you,
>
>because it can turn and go the other direction. I may be wrong. Some of
>the
>experts say we'll be down to $35 oil by the end of the year. I think
>it'll
>be $60 oil by the end of the year. You're going to see $3 gasoline
>twelve
>months from today, or some time during that period. I know you've
>already
>experienced it in California. I am not that much out of it... But in the
>
>Midwest you've probably got $2.20 today. That's the way I see it
>unfolding".
>
>Pickens went to explain that if he were Energy "Czar", he'd immediately
>begin to phase out the use of natural gas in electric power generation
>and
>encourage the construction of more coal-fired and nuclear power plants.
>He'd use the natural gas to power transportation instead.
>
>Speaking of the various alternative fuels, he stated, "I don't think any
>of
>them can miss. I think some will be further out than others. Hydrogen, I
>
>think, is going to take a long time". Speaking before an audience with
>vested interests in ethanol, biodiesel, propane and compressed natural
>gas
>as transportation fuels, he added that he believes all the alternatives
>will work.
>
>"We're going to have to use shale oil the western slope of the Rockies.
>That's going to happen. The technology is just about here", he noted,
>adding that he blames both Republican and Democratic administrations for
>
>not engaging in long term planning to meet the nation's future energy
>needs.
>
>"It's all getting very, very tight. We're just about there. The sixty
>percent we import now (of petroleum), is about all we can get from the
>countries that export". He cited the example of Venezuela where its
>"screwball" leader, Hugo Chavez has pledged to not sell any additional
>oil
>to the United States.
>
>"The majors, they talk about plenty of oil and that they can produce
>more,
>but if you look at ExxonMobile, ChevronTexaco, BP (British Petroleum),
>all
>the production (is) going down every year. They don't replace and they
>don't add to production, but they say there's plenty of oil around.
>
>"Now why would they say that? One of the chief economists with one of
>the
>major oil companies... I was at a conference where he was... we were
>talking and I asked, why do they say that? And he said, can you imagine
>what would happen if one of these major oil company's CEO's got up and
>made
>a speech and he said, 'We're running out of oil'? I said there'd be
>panic
>and he said, 'That's right. They're not going to make the statement.
>They're going to say there's plenty of oil around'".
>
>"I know that sounds rather simple, but that's the best answer I've
>had...
>why they keep saying that there's plenty of oil around. I can't tell you
>
>positive, but I am just so sure that we have peaked and from here on the
>
>demand side that we are going to have a hard time making the trip on
>fuel.
>I know demand will come down with price. That will happen".
>
>He answered several audience questions and predicted that if the summer
>is
>hot in the Southeast that natural gas prices will go to $10. "Natural
>gas
>is in decline", he stated, concluding that eventually the market will
>sort
>out the winners and losers".
>
>After his remarks, EV World asked Mr. Pickens if he agrees with
>Houston-based investment banker Matthew Simmons that Saudi Arabia's oil
>fields may be on the verge of decline and he replied that he did agree
>him.
>
>If Pickens and Simmons are correct, then Crown Prince Abdullah's
>promises
>to raise production over the next ten years to 15 million barrels a day
>may
>be just wishful thinking, in which case, Saudi Arabia's role as swing
>producer and oil price stabilizer may be a thing of the past. Oil prices
>
>will begin to experience unprecedented volatility, which is likely to
>place
>serious stresses on a world largely unprepared for the end of cheap
>fossil
>fuels. The road from here on will be a bumpy one."
>
>






At 04:40 AM 6/16/2005, you wrote:
>mikes got it right..randy
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Mike Hohnstein
> To: WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2005 7:27 AM
> Subject: Re: [WanderlodgeForum] A little of subject but something of
> interest
>
>
> That's all good but the real problem is the lack of refining capacity
> in this country. The "not in my back yard" syndrome is the problem
> there, not to mention restrictive regulations meant to save the world or
> something.
> Mike Hohnstein
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: DAY8293A@...
> To: WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2005 11:53 PM
> Subject: Re: [WanderlodgeForum] A little of subject but something of
> interest
>
>
> 55 MAY BE GOOD FOR OUR COACHES, BUT THE BIG RIGS USE
> MORE FUEL
> GOING 55. I HAD A 4 SPEED CHEVY VEGA SET UP WITH A HIGHWAY SPEED
> (70 MPH)
> REAR END, AND WAS GETTING 30 MPG. MUCH MORE THAN WHEN I BOUGHT IT.
> WHEN PRESIDENT "JIMMAY" LOWERED THE SPEED LIMIT TO 55 MPH, I
> COULD NO
> LONGER MAKE IT UP HILLS IN FOURTH GEAR, AND HAD TO DOWN SHIFT TO
> THIRD,,, JUST
> LIKE THE BIG TRUCKS HAD TO DO,,, AND DOWN WENT MY FUEL MILEAGE !!!
> IT HELPS SOME VEHICLES TO GO SLOW, AND OTHERS CAN CRUISE AT HIGHER
> SPEEDS AND DO BETTER. I CAN GET 30 MPG IN MY CORVETTE AT 70 MPH. (I
> USED TO GET
> 36 MPG IN MY 93 VETTE)
> I THINK PEOPLE WILL SLOW DOWN TO SAVE GAS IF IT WORKS FOR THEIR
> VEHICLE,,, I KNOW I SLOW DOWN,,, WE DON'T NEED THE GOV'T ON OUR CASE
> ANYMORE.
> WHAT WE DO NEED IS TO LIFT THE NICKLE A GALLON FUEL TAX THAT "SLICK
> WILLY" PUT ON FUEL WHEN HE WAS IN OFFICE,,,, DAY, IN JAX FLA
> ,,,,83PT-40,,,
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
>
>
>
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