More Plant Shutdowns

[birdshill123]

It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting back
production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country
Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo
and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be
out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name)
The really bad news is as follows:



DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc.
said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week
beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales.

Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two
primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila
Davis said Friday.

Although The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates in
recent months, the reduction has not largely reached consumers yet,
Davis said.

The curtailment of production at the company's factories in Forest
City, Charles City and Hampton will affect a majority of the ompany's
3,000 workers.


A production line in Charles City will stay on the job during the
week and office workers will remain.

"We take a look at our schedules based on the level we're seeing in
the retail market and the wholesale market to our dealers," Davis
said. "We evaluate that on a daily basis and want to make sure we
keep our inventories in line."

The company typically only shuts down production for a week around
Christmas and a week in late July.

In March, Winnebago reported that second-quarter profits fell nearly
67 percent as consumer confidence helped drag down sales of
recreational vehicles.

Net income fell to $2.5 million, or 9 cents a share, for the three
months ended March 1, down from $7.5 million, or 24 cents a share a
year ago. Sales fell 17.5 percent to $164.2 million from $199 million
for the same period a year ago.

On Friday shares were trading 2.2 percent higher, or 35 cents, at
$15.79. Shares have traded in the past 52 weeks between $14.96 and
$34.44.

The Forest City-based company said in March it had cut employment by
9 percent, or about 300 people during the quarter to bring production
in line with slowing sales.

President Bob Olson told industry analysts that sales were down
across the industry in the double digits for each month since the
beginning of the year.

He told analysts that the usual spring uptick in sales likely will be
muted because of concerns over the economy. Olson said he hoped to
see a turnaround by November.

END OF ARTICLE

Some of the other mfrs. that closed were smaller mfrs. with shakey
management. Winnie is probably an exception. An experienced and
usually well run company. If they cannot sell units who can?? I saw
that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. We
should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important
of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million
dollar toys such as yachts?

Bruce
1988 FC35

[Mike Hohnstein]

Most of us are old enough to have lived through the Nixon/Ford/Carter years. I doubt there should be much surprise for any of us as fuel heads for 5 bucks a gallon. There is hope however, the po' folks over seas is hungry due to the cost of food commodities spiking, mebbe the oil company haters will get their minds right yet, and start to use the resources we have in OUR homeland. I'm not talking about freeking ethanol either, WTH.

MH

----- Original Message -----

From: "birdshill123@yahoo.com"

To: "WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com"

Sent: Friday, April 18, 2008 9:11 PM

Subject: [WanderlodgeForum] More Plant Shutdowns

It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting back
production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country
Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo
and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be
out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name)
The really bad news is as follows:

DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc.
said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week
beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales.

Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two
primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila
Davis said Friday.

Although The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates in
recent months, the reduction has not largely reached consumers yet,
Davis said.

The curtailment of production at the company's factories in Forest
City, Charles City and Hampton will affect a majority of the ompany's
3,000 workers.

A production line in Charles City will stay on the job during the
week and office workers will remain.

"We take a look at our schedules based on the level we're seeing in
the retail market and the wholesale market to our dealers," Davis
said. "We evaluate that on a daily basis and want to make sure we
keep our inventories in line."

The company typically only shuts down production for a week around
Christmas and a week in late July.

In March, Winnebago reported that second-quarter profits fell nearly
67 percent as consumer confidence helped drag down sales of
recreational vehicles.

Net income fell to $2.5 million, or 9 cents a share, for the three
months ended March 1, down from $7.5 million, or 24 cents a share a
year ago. Sales fell 17.5 percent to $164.2 million from $199 million
for the same period a year ago.

On Friday shares were trading 2.2 percent higher, or 35 cents, at
$15.79. Shares have traded in the past 52 weeks between $14.96 and
$34.44.

The Forest City-based company said in March it had cut employment by
9 percent, or about 300 people during the quarter to bring production
in line with slowing sales.

President Bob Olson told industry analysts that sales were down
across the industry in the double digits for each month since the
beginning of the year.

He told analysts that the usual spring uptick in sales likely will be
muted because of concerns over the economy. Olson said he hoped to
see a turnaround by November.

END OF ARTICLE

Some of the other mfrs. that closed were smaller mfrs. with shakey
management. Winnie is probably an exception. An experienced and
usually well run company. If they cannot sell units who can?? I saw
that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. We
should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important
of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million
dollar toys such as yachts?

Bruce
1988 FC35

[jim riordan]

The real answer is to get the price of fuel down, that will help our enconomy the most.

birdshill123 wrote:

It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting back
production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country
Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo
and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be
out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name)
The really bad news is as follows:

DES
MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc.
said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week
beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales.

Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two
primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila
Davis said Friday.

Although The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates in
recent months, the reduction has not largely reached consumers yet,
Davis said.

The curtailment of production at the company's factories in Forest
City, Charles City and Hampton will affect a majority of the ompany's
3,000 workers.

A production line in Charles City will stay on the job during the
week and office workers will remain.

"We take a look at our schedules based on the level we're seeing in
the retail market and the wholesale market to our dealers," Davis
said. "We evaluate
that on a daily basis and want to make sure we
keep our inventories in line."

The company typically only shuts down production for a week around
Christmas and a week in late July.

In March, Winnebago reported that second-quarter profits fell nearly
67 percent as consumer confidence helped drag down sales of
recreational vehicles.

Net income fell to $2.5 million, or 9 cents a share, for the three
months ended March 1, down from $7.5 million, or 24 cents a share a
year ago. Sales fell 17.5 percent to $164.2 million from $199 million
for the same period a year ago.

On Friday shares were trading 2.2 percent higher, or 35 cents, at
$15.79. Shares have traded in the past 52 weeks between $14.96 and
$34.44.

The Forest City-based company said in March it had cut employment by
9 percent, or about 300 people during the quarter to bring production
in line with slowing sales.

President Bob
Olson told industry analysts that sales were down
across the industry in the double digits for each month since the
beginning of the year.

He told analysts that the usual spring uptick in sales likely will be
muted because of concerns over the economy. Olson said he hoped to
see a turnaround by November.

END OF ARTICLE

Some of the other mfrs. that closed were smaller mfrs. with shakey
management. Winnie is probably an exception. An experienced and
usually well run company. If they cannot sell units who can?? I saw
that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. We
should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important
of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million
dollar toys such as yachts?

Bruce
1988 FC35

---

Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. [url=http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=51733/*http://mobile.yahoo.com/;_ylt=Ahu06i62sR...o8Wcj9tAcJ ] Try it now.[/url]

[Henry Jay Hannigan]

Mike:
If u think things are bad now, wait til the war ends in a year.
Everybody get ready and hold on. Recommend u plant a veggy garden and
park the bird in a warm climate and ride it out!! LOL
Hank
90SP36
PS clear those credit cards and burn em...I did!






In WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Hohnstein"
<MHOHNSTEIN@...> wrote:
>
> Most of us are old enough to have lived through the
Nixon/Ford/Carter years. I doubt there should be much surprise for
any of us as fuel heads for 5 bucks a gallon. There is hope however,
the po' folks over seas is hungry due to the cost of food commodities
spiking, mebbe the oil company haters will get their minds right yet,
and start to use the resources we have in OUR homeland. I'm not
talking about freeking ethanol either, WTH.
> MH
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: birdshill123
> To: WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Friday, April 18, 2008 9:11 PM
> Subject: [WanderlodgeForum] More Plant Shutdowns
>
>
> It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting
back
> production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country
> Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of
limbo
> and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will
be
> out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate
name)
> The really bad news is as follows:
>
> DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries
Inc.
> said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week
> beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales.
>
> Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the
two
> primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila
> Davis said Friday.
>
> Although The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates
in
> recent months, the reduction has not largely reached consumers
yet,
> Davis said.
>
> The curtailment of production at the company's factories in
Forest
> City, Charles City and Hampton will affect a majority of the
ompany's
> 3,000 workers.
>
> A production line in Charles City will stay on the job during the
> week and office workers will remain.
>
> "We take a look at our schedules based on the level we're seeing
in
> the retail market and the wholesale market to our dealers," Davis
> said. "We evaluate that on a daily basis and want to make sure we
> keep our inventories in line."
>
> The company typically only shuts down production for a week
around
> Christmas and a week in late July.
>
> In March, Winnebago reported that second-quarter profits fell
nearly
> 67 percent as consumer confidence helped drag down sales of
> recreational vehicles.
>
> Net income fell to $2.5 million, or 9 cents a share, for the
three
> months ended March 1, down from $7.5 million, or 24 cents a share
a
> year ago. Sales fell 17.5 percent to $164.2 million from $199
million
> for the same period a year ago.
>
> On Friday shares were trading 2.2 percent higher, or 35 cents, at
> $15.79. Shares have traded in the past 52 weeks between $14.96
and
> $34.44.
>
> The Forest City-based company said in March it had cut employment
by
> 9 percent, or about 300 people during the quarter to bring
production
> in line with slowing sales.
>
> President Bob Olson told industry analysts that sales were down
> across the industry in the double digits for each month since the
> beginning of the year.
>
> He told analysts that the usual spring uptick in sales likely
will be
> muted because of concerns over the economy. Olson said he hoped
to
> see a turnaround by November.
>
> END OF ARTICLE
>
> Some of the other mfrs. that closed were smaller mfrs. with
shakey
> management. Winnie is probably an exception. An experienced and
> usually well run company. If they cannot sell units who can?? I
saw
> that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. We
> should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
> mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most
important
> of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million
> dollar toys such as yachts?
>
> Bruce
> 1988 FC35
>

[David Brady]

I wonder how the manufacturers of entry-level campers are doing?

Smart business plans always seem to cater to either the Walmart

crowd (pop-up campers), or the tiffany crowd (Prevost or BlueBird),

anything between always seems to take it pretty hard when the

economy turns south.



David

'02 LXi, NC



birdshill123 wrote:

It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting
back

production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country

Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo

and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be

out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name)

The really bad news is as follows:



DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc.

said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week

beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales.



Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two

primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila

Davis said Friday.



Although The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates in

recent months, the reduction has not largely reached consumers yet,

Davis said.



The curtailment of production at the company's factories in Forest

City, Charles City and Hampton will affect a majority of the ompany's

3,000 workers.



A production line in Charles City will stay on the job during the

week and office workers will remain.



"We take a look at our schedules based on the level we're seeing in

the retail market and the wholesale market to our dealers," Davis

said. "We evaluate that on a daily basis and want to make sure we

keep our inventories in line."



The company typically only shuts down production for a week around

Christmas and a week in late July.



In March, Winnebago reported that second-quarter profits fell nearly

67 percent as consumer confidence helped drag down sales of

recreational vehicles.



Net income fell to $2.5 million, or 9 cents a share, for the three

months ended March 1, down from $7.5 million, or 24 cents a share a

year ago. Sales fell 17.5 percent to $164.2 million from $199 million

for the same period a year ago.



On Friday shares were trading 2.2 percent higher, or 35 cents, at

$15.79. Shares have traded in the past 52 weeks between $14.96 and

$34.44.



The Forest City-based company said in March it had cut employment by

9 percent, or about 300 people during the quarter to bring production

in line with slowing sales.



President Bob Olson told industry analysts that sales were down

across the industry in the double digits for each month since the

beginning of the year.



He told analysts that the usual spring uptick in sales likely will be

muted because of concerns over the economy. Olson said he hoped to

see a turnaround by November.



END OF ARTICLE



Some of the other mfrs. that closed were smaller mfrs. with shakey

management. Winnie is probably an exception. An experienced and

usually well run company. If they cannot sell units who can?? I saw

that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. We

should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV

mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important

of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million

dollar toys such as yachts?



Bruce

1988 FC35

No virus found in this incoming message.

Checked by AVG. Version: 7.5.524 / Virus Database: 269.23.1/1384 - Release Date: 4/17/2008 3:47 PM

[mbulriss]

> I saw that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down.
> We should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
> mfrs. are doing

Bruce -

I knew Harley was feeling the pain when I received an offer of 1.05%
financing early in the year to 'celebrate' their 105th anniversary.
Yeah, right....

As youwell know, there's a huge lead-lag factor in the general
consumer economy - and the reporting on the same. I'm in the
electronics manufacturing game and I saw the economy changing
dramatically mid-year last year. Fortunately (for me), we run
counter-cyclical to the consumer industry. We deal in jails and
prisons. The economy starts dropping, crime goes up, our business
goes up.

You are right in stating that "We should not take all of this
lightly". As you and I have both pointed out, the worst is yet to
come in the 'sub-prime' mortgage debacle.

I can't speak for BB, but according to a friend in the Prevost game,
so far he still claims their business stays constant regardless of the
general economy. Something about inelasticity of demand for the
well-heeled, versus the general elasticity of demand for the overall
consumer market, such as when discussing fuel prices.

In any event, for those with money, there will be some spectacular
buying opportunities (on most anything) in the near future. The
question is whether they are wise buying opportunities. Without going
into the value of the dollar, and when is the bottom really the
bottom, I fear that anyone with a BB is quite "upside down" right now,
regardless of how well they bought into it!

As someone recently posted, very astutely, that's why they are called
Recreational Vehicles and we should enjoy them as such!

Mike Bulriss
1991 WB40 "Texas Minivan"
San Antonio, TX

--- In WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com, "birdshill123"
wrote:
>
> It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting back
> production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country
> Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo
> and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be
> out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name)
> The really bad news is as follows:
>
>
>
> DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc.
> said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week
> beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales.
>
> Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two
> primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila
> Davis said Friday.
>
> Although The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates in
> recent months, the reduction has not largely reached consumers yet,
> Davis said.
>
> The curtailment of production at the company's factories in Forest
> City, Charles City and Hampton will affect a majority of the ompany's
> 3,000 workers.
>
>
> A production line in Charles City will stay on the job during the
> week and office workers will remain.
>
> "We take a look at our schedules based on the level we're seeing in
> the retail market and the wholesale market to our dealers," Davis
> said. "We evaluate that on a daily basis and want to make sure we
> keep our inventories in line."
>
> The company typically only shuts down production for a week around
> Christmas and a week in late July.
>
> In March, Winnebago reported that second-quarter profits fell nearly
> 67 percent as consumer confidence helped drag down sales of
> recreational vehicles.
>
> Net income fell to $2.5 million, or 9 cents a share, for the three
> months ended March 1, down from $7.5 million, or 24 cents a share a
> year ago. Sales fell 17.5 percent to $164.2 million from $199 million
> for the same period a year ago.
>
> On Friday shares were trading 2.2 percent higher, or 35 cents, at
> $15.79. Shares have traded in the past 52 weeks between $14.96 and
> $34.44.
>
> The Forest City-based company said in March it had cut employment by
> 9 percent, or about 300 people during the quarter to bring production
> in line with slowing sales.
>
> President Bob Olson told industry analysts that sales were down
> across the industry in the double digits for each month since the
> beginning of the year.
>
> He told analysts that the usual spring uptick in sales likely will be
> muted because of concerns over the economy. Olson said he hoped to
> see a turnaround by November.
>
> END OF ARTICLE
>
> Some of the other mfrs. that closed were smaller mfrs. with shakey
> management. Winnie is probably an exception. An experienced and
> usually well run company. If they cannot sell units who can?? I saw
> that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. We
> should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
> mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important
> of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million
> dollar toys such as yachts?
>
> Bruce
> 1988 FC35
>

[Pete Masterson]

I was first interested in RVing in the late 60s (though I didn't have the income to afford it then)... this was not long before the 1973 oil crisis -- and fuel prices shot up and RV driving/ownership plummeted. Many RV manufacturers went out of business. This was repeated in 1979, although that oil crisis was not as severe. Each crisis was accompanied by claims that "life as we know it has ended..."

We are again in a oil -price- crisis accompanied by a financial services meltdown due to sub prime loan "problems" related to the real estate market collapse. 

Of course consumer confidence in the economy has tanked. A substantial portion of our population has seen their home values drop -- in some areas, including where I live, significantly. Many people had been using equity financing to use their homes as a 'bank account' -- but that is cut off when housing prices drop reducing the equity in homes as the margin between mortgage balance and market value is pinched.

During each past oil crisis, RV manufacturer's sales tanked. Many of the financially weaker companies went bankrupt (or just closed their doors). Even the mighty WInnebago was sorely tested according to a history I recently read in one of the RV magazines.

However, each economic recession was eventually put behind us. Each recession was followed by robust economic times. Indeed, by the early 00s, adjusted for inflation, fuel costs were at one of their lowest levels relative to family income since the 60s.

Since I've seen that "life as we know it" does not necessarily end during oil price crisis or economic recession, I'm fairly certain that the US economy will weather the current situation and an improved economy will evolve in a few months (with its share of interim pain, no doubt). 

Over half the increase in oil prices is attributed to the reduced value of the dollar relative to other currencies. A weak dollar is caused by several factors, including erroneous thinking on the part of politicians (of all political parties) that think it "helps" make US produced goods more competitive on the world market. A weak dollar does, initially, give a small boost to US exports, but every time this course has been followed, it eventually ignites serious inflation at home and ultimately wipes out any advantage our exporters may have achieved and wreaks havoc with consumers and wage earners as they struggle with inflation.

What all this means is that we'll all have to hunker down and ride out the financial storm. Eventually, it will pass. We hope that our favorite companies can ride it out as well and survive into better times ahead. Economic recessions always have rather uneven impacts, so it's hard to predict who'll be the survivors. 

As for me, I'm probably going to (try to) drive a little slower to use a little less fuel....

Pete Masterson

'95 Blue Bird Wanderlodge WBDA 42

El Sobrante CA

"aeonix1@mac.com"

On Apr 18, 2008, at 7:11 PM, birdshill123 wrote:

It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting back 

production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country 

Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo 

and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be 

out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name) 

The really bad news is as follows:

DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc. 

said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week 

beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales. 

Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two 

primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila 

Davis said Friday. 

<snip>

[Ron Thompson]

Pete,

I agree with you that our economy will weather this storm, however, we are in a completely different situation this time. China, India, and Asia were not the power houses they are becoming and we had not given away so much of our manufacturing base. Those overseas companies are not going to give up what they now have at all. Their competetion at the Oil Companies market place is going to ensure that we are going to have high prices from now on.

With our manufacturing base gone, what will we have left to sell, hamburgers?

I know that diesel prices are certainly going to curb my travel. I have a 2005 Dodge Ram 2500 Cummins diesel and it cost me over a hundred dollars just to fill its tank. At $4.14 per gallon of diesel, it costs me $1242.00 to fill this 1995 WLWB 42 footer. And at 6 miles to the gallon if I baby it along I can get down the road about 1800 miles. However, if I am in mountains or just hills
that mileage goes down quickly to about 4 miles to the gallon.

Heartbreaking....

Ron Thompson

Pete Masterson wrote:

I was first interested in RVing in the late 60s (though I didn't have the income to afford it then)... this was not long before the 1973 oil crisis -- and fuel prices shot up and RV driving/ownership plummeted. Many RV manufacturers went out of business. This was repeated in 1979, although that oil crisis was not as severe. Each crisis was accompanied by claims that "life as we know it has
ended..."

We are again in a oil -price- crisis accompanied by a financial services meltdown due to sub prime loan "problems" related to the real estate market collapse.

Of course consumer confidence in the economy has tanked. A substantial portion of our population has seen their home values drop -- in some areas, including where I live, significantly. Many people had been using equity financing to use their homes as a 'bank account' -- but that is cut off when housing prices drop reducing the equity in homes as the margin between mortgage balance and market value is pinched.

During each past oil crisis, RV manufacturer's sales tanked. Many of the financially weaker companies went bankrupt (or just closed their doors). Even the mighty WInnebago was sorely tested according to a history I recently read in one of the RV magazines.

However, each economic recession was
eventually put behind us. Each recession was followed by robust economic times. Indeed, by the early 00s, adjusted for inflation, fuel costs were at one of their lowest levels relative to family income since the 60s.

Since I've seen that "life as we know it" does not necessarily end during oil price crisis or economic recession, I'm fairly certain that the US economy will weather the current situation and an improved economy will evolve in a few months (with its share of interim pain, no doubt).

Over half the increase in oil prices is attributed to the reduced value of the dollar relative to other currencies. A weak dollar is caused by several factors, including erroneous thinking on the part of politicians (of all political parties) that think it "helps" make US produced goods more competitive on the world market. A weak dollar does, initially, give a small boost to US exports, but every time this course has been
followed, it eventually ignites serious inflation at home and ultimately wipes out any advantage our exporters may have achieved and wreaks havoc with consumers and wage earners as they struggle with inflation.

What all this means is that we'll all have to hunker down and ride out the financial storm. Eventually, it will pass. We hope that our favorite companies can ride it out as well and survive into better times ahead. Economic recessions always have rather uneven impacts, so it's hard to predict who'll be the survivors.

As for me, I'm probably going to (try to) drive a little slower to use a little less fuel....

Pete Masterson

'95 Blue
Bird Wanderlodge WBDA 42

El Sobrante CA

"aeonix1@mac.com"

On Apr 18, 2008, at 7:11 PM, birdshill123 wrote:

It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting back

production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country

Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo

and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be

out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name)

The really bad news is as follows:

DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc.

said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week

beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales.

Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two

primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila

Davis said Friday.

<snip>

[Pete Masterson]

Ron,

I have the same year coach as you ... and believe me, a "top off" of over $1000 is not something I really anticipated when I got my coach. And, I'm well aware of the fuel use, especially if you get a little too enthusiastic about covering ground in states with high speed limits and little traffic.

While your concern about the competition of China and India for oil certainly suggest that higher oil prices can be expected are true -- (that probably accounts for a good portion of the _other_ half of the price increase over the past year) a strengthening dollar, should it eventually arrive, will give the economy room to adjust to the higher prices -- as it has in the prior "oil shocks."

The gloom and doom news from the media over our economic situation often ignores a few realities. For example, the 2007 GDP for China is only about 1/4 this size of the US economy. (India's GDP is about 1/2 the size of China's economy.) 07 wasn't a great growth year for the US (about 2.2%) and China reported a 10+% increase. However, when converted to actual dollars, the US growth was about $305 billion while China's GDP grew about $350 billion. When you compare percents (2.2 vs 10+) it looks bad for the US ... but when you look at the actual dollars it represents, the massive size of the US economy is still quite large in comparison. Indeed, in a good year when the US growth rate gets to 3.5% or so, our _growth_ alone is equal to 1/2 the total GDP of China.

Yes, China (and India) are gaining on us. Yes, we have many challenges ahead. Yes, there are several disturbing trends in our economy and demographics that suggest that some serious challenges will occur in the next few years. But there is considerable strength in our economy and there are also many factors that suggest that we'll do better than many doomsayers claim.

No ... we won't be selling hamburgers to the world. It's actually better for our economy (and the world's economy) that production move to places where it can be most efficiently produced. (It leaves our economy to produce the goods and _services_ that we're most efficient at doing.) That the US loses "high paying" manufacturing jobs is sometimes painfully obvious -- but manufacturing is less than 20% of our GDP (2006 figures latest available to me). When manufacturing moves overseas, it generally increases other jobs in the U.S. -- this, of course, is dispersed, so the obvious (newsworthy) loss of jobs is publicized but the not-so-obvious increase in other jobs, spread throughout the country and in a variety of sectors (transportation, wholesale trade, retail trade, finance, etc.) is neither obvious nor reported.

Indeed, this map gives a little perspective as it relates the GDP of each US _state_ to countries throughout the world. 

<http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2007/06...ilar-gdps/> (you may need to reassemble this to load in your browser) or try

<http://tiny.cc/vXWbp>

The US generates about 30.5% of the world GDP, China contributes about 5.8% of world GDP.

<http://www.swivel.com/data_sets/show/1004018>

So, short term, I'm quite concerned about the US economy. I'm painfully aware of the recent, significant run-up in fuel cost. But longer-term, I'm quite confident that we'll recover economically. So don't get sucked in by the reportage from the media over our economic "problems" (and realize that in a presidential election year there are many who benefit from "bad news" about the economy). 

Pete Masterson

'95 Blue Bird Wanderlodge WBDA 42

El Sobrante CA

"aeonix1@mac.com"

On Apr 19, 2008, at 1:02 PM, Ron Thompson wrote:

Pete,

I agree with you that our economy will weather this storm, however, we are in a completely different situation this time.  China, India, and Asia were not the power houses they are becoming and we had not given away so much of our manufacturing base.  Those overseas companies are not going to give up what they now have at all.  Their competetion at the Oil Companies market place is going to ensure that we are going to have high prices from now on.

With our manufacturing base gone, what will we have left to sell, hamburgers?

I know that diesel prices are certainly going to curb my travel.  I have a 2005 Dodge Ram 2500 Cummins diesel and it cost me over a hundred dollars just to fill its tank.  At $4.14 per gallon of diesel, it costs me $1242.00 to fill this 1995 WLWB 42 footer.  And at 6 miles to the gallon if I baby it along I can get down the road about 1800 miles.  However, if I am in mountains or just hills that mileage goes down quickly to about 4 miles to the gallon.

Heartbreaking....

Ron Thompson

<snip>

[Steve Pfiffner]

,___
This thread will end up proving why politics are a banned topic on most forums like this. I am amazed that after 30 years of exporting our production capacity and our jobs

that so many people still buy into the pablum that destroying american jobs is somehow "economic efficency" when it is simply greater profits for the corporate elite. The Europeans choose to protect industries and jobs and it has served them well as noted

by the current exchange rates.

Steve

Wannabee

Steve